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📊 Executive Summary
Current Price $--
Fair Value (8 Models) $--
Opportunity -- %

This dashboard attempts to derive Ethereum's intrinsic value using 8 different valuation methodologies — from traditional finance frameworks (DCF, P/E, Revenue Yield) to crypto-native metrics (TVL Multiple, Metcalfe's Law, Staking Scarcity).

We believe the crypto industry needs more rigorous, fundamentals-based valuation approaches. While these models have limitations and assumptions, they provide a framework for thinking about value beyond pure price speculation.

Found a bug or have suggestions? Let me know anytime — feedback is always welcome!

Simon 📧 simon@hashed.com or 𝕏 @simonkim_nft
Price & Market Overview
Live
ETH / USD
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Market Cap $--
24h Volume $--
ATH $-- --

Supply Distribution

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Liquid DeFi Staking

Exchange Reserve

-- ETH
CEX Balance · Santiment --

ETH Dominance

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vs Total Market --

ETH/BTC Ratio

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Price Ratio --
On-Chain Metrics & Trends
Weekly Data

Total Value Locked

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52w: -- - -- --

Layer 2 TVL

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All Major L2s --

Staked ETH

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Rate: --% --

DEX Volume (7d)

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All DEXs --

Network Fees (7d)

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Protocol Revenue --

Stablecoins

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USDT + USDC + DAI --

ETH Mainnet Tx (Daily)

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Ethereum Only --

ETH + L2 Tx (Daily)

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All Ecosystem --

NVT Ratio

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MCap ÷ TxVol(7d avg) · Target: 50 --

Active Addresses

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From Tx Count · ~3 tx/addr --
Valuation Analysis
8 Models
Composite Fair Value
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-- vs Current
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Buy
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Hold
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Sell
Current Price $--
Weighted Avg $--
Median $--
Potential --%
Reliability Weighting
High ×9 Med ×5 Low ×2
Valuation Methodology
Reference
TVL Multiple
Price = TVL × 7 ÷ Supply
Reliability High
TVL may include leverage, recursive deposits, and double-counting across protocols
Values ETH based on total assets locked in DeFi protocols. The 7x multiple is derived from historical MC/TVL ratios during balanced market conditions (2020-2023 average). Higher TVL indicates greater network utility, adoption, and trust in Ethereum's smart contract ecosystem. This model assumes DeFi activity is a primary value driver for ETH.
Staking Scarcity
Price × √(Supply ÷ Liquid)
Reliability Low
Proprietary model developed for this dashboard. Lacks peer review or academic validation
Applies a scarcity premium when circulating supply decreases due to staking. As more ETH is locked in validators (currently ~28%), liquid supply shrinks, theoretically increasing price pressure. The square root function dampens extreme valuations while still capturing the scarcity effect. This model gained relevance post-Merge with ETH's transition to Proof-of-Stake.
MC/TVL Fair Value
Price × (6 ÷ Current Ratio)
Reliability High
Industry-standard metric for cross-chain valuation comparisons
Mean-reversion model assuming Market Cap to TVL ratio returns to historical average of 6x. When ratio is above 6x, ETH is considered overvalued; below 6x indicates undervaluation. Similar to P/B ratio in traditional equity analysis. Widely used by institutional researchers including Messari and Delphi Digital for relative valuation comparisons across L1 blockchains.
Metcalfe's Law
2 × (TVL/1B)^1.5 × 1B ÷ Supply
Reliability High
Academically validated model with strong historical correlation
Network value grows proportionally to the square of active users/nodes. Originally developed for telecommunications, this model has been empirically validated for Bitcoin and Ethereum by academic researchers (Alabi 2017, Peterson 2018). Uses TVL as a proxy for network activity. The 1.5 exponent (between linear and quadratic) accounts for real-world network friction.
DCF (Staking Yield)
P × 1.035 ÷ (0.10 - 0.03)
Reliability Medium
Highly sensitive to discount rate and growth rate assumptions
Traditional Discounted Cash Flow analysis treating staking rewards as perpetual cash flows. Uses current staking yield (~3.5%) as the cash flow rate, 10% discount rate (crypto risk premium), and 3% perpetual growth rate. This approach bridges traditional finance valuation with crypto-native yield generation, making ETH comparable to dividend-paying assets.
L2 Ecosystem
(TVL + L2_TVL×2) × 6 ÷ Supply
Reliability Low
2x L2 weight multiplier is proprietary without empirical basis
Captures value from Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling ecosystem (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync, etc.). L2 TVL is weighted 2x because L2 activity settles on Ethereum mainnet, consuming blockspace and burning ETH via EIP-1559. This model recognizes that Ethereum's value extends beyond L1 to its entire rollup-centric roadmap and modular blockchain thesis.
P/E Ratio (25x)
Annual_Fees × 25 ÷ Supply
Reliability High
Directly comparable to traditional equity valuation
Treats network transaction fees as "earnings" and applies a P/E multiple comparable to growth tech stocks (25x). Annual fees represent actual economic value captured by the protocol. Post EIP-1559, a portion of fees is burned, making this metric even more relevant as it directly impacts ETH supply. Used by Token Terminal and other institutional-grade analytics platforms.
Revenue Yield
Annual_Revenue ÷ 2.5% ÷ Supply
Reliability High
Bond-like methodology with institutional acceptance
Reverse-engineers fair value from a target protocol yield of 2.5%, treating ETH like a yield-bearing bond. If Ethereum generates X in annual fees, and investors require 2.5% yield, the implied market cap is X ÷ 0.025. This approach is favored by TradFi analysts evaluating crypto as an alternative asset class. The 2.5% target reflects yields on high-growth infrastructure assets.
⚠️ Disclaimer: These valuation models are for reference only. Each model has its own assumptions and limitations. "Reliability" indicates the level of academic backing and empirical validation. Investment decisions should consider multiple factors comprehensively.