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ETHval derives Ethereum's intrinsic value using 12 valuation models across four methodological categories: Traditional Finance (Staking DCF, P/S Ratio, Fee Yield, Validator Economics), On-chain Asset Value (TVL Multiple, App Capital), Network Effects (Metcalfe's Law, ETH Monetary, Ecosystem Settlement, L2 Ecosystem), and Supply Scarcity (Staking Scarcity, Liquidity Premium).
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01.1 — Models & Fair Value
TVL Multiple
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TVL × Multiple ÷ Supply
Staking Scarcity
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Price × √(Supply ÷ (Supply - Staked))
Metcalfe's Law
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Coef × TVL^Exp ÷ Supply
DCF (Staking)
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Price × (1+APR) ÷ (Discount - Growth)
L2 Ecosystem
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(TVL + L2×Weight) × Multiple ÷ Supply
P/S Ratio (25x)
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(L1Fees + BlobFees) × 365 × PSRatio ÷ Supply
Fee Yield
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(L1Fees + BlobFees) × 365 ÷ APR ÷ Supply
Liquidity Premium
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Price × √(Supply ÷ Liquid Float)
App Capital
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AppCapital ÷ Supply
Validator Economics
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Price × (Target ÷ APR)
ETH Monetary (MV=PQ)
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(L1 ETH Vol + L2 ETH Vol) × 365 ÷ ETH Velocity ÷ Supply
Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ)
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(L1 Total Vol + L2 Total Vol) × 365 ÷ Ecosystem Velocity ÷ Supply
Composite Fair Value (12 / 12 models)
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Current Price
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Median
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Potential
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Simple average of 12 active models. Toggle off any model to exclude it from the calculation.
01.2 — Historical Trends
FAIR VALUE TREND (12 / 12 models)
Market Price
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Composite Fair Value
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Market Price
Composite Fair Value
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TVL Multiple
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Staking Scarcity
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Metcalfe's Law
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DCF (Staking)
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L2 Ecosystem
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P/S Ratio (25x)
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Fee Yield
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Liquidity Premium
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App Capital
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Validator Economics
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ETH Monetary (MV=PQ)
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Ecosystem Settlement
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01.3 — Scenario Simulator
WHAT-IF SCENARIO SIMULATOR
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Market Price
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Current Fair Value
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Simulated Fair Value
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Simulated Values
Fundamentals
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Market Cap
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24h Volume
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ATH
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02.1 — Investor Sentiment
Realized Price
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MVRV Ratio
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Fear & Greed
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Funding Rate
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Open Interest
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Exchange ETH Reserve
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Whale Transactions
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02.2 — Market Position
ETH/BTC Ratio
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ETH Dominance
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Stablecoin Mcap
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Volatility
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NVT Ratio
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02.3 — Supply Dynamics
Staking Yield (APR)
--%
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Staked ETH
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ETH Burned
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ETH Issued
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Net Supply
--%/yr
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Effective Float
--%
Float
Staking
DeFi
Others
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02.4 — Network Demand
Gas Price
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Gas Utilization
--%
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Network Fees
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Blob Fees
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Blob Count
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DeFi Protocol Revenue
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02.5 — User Activity
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L1 Active Addresses
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L2 Active Addresses
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L1 Transactions
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L2 Transactions
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02.6 — Locked Capital
L1 Total Value Locked
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L2 Total Value Locked
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DeFi Lending TVL
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L1 Stablecoin Supply
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L2 Stablecoin Supply
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App Capital
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02.7 — Settlement Volume
L1 Total Volume
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L1 ETH Transfer
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L1 Stablecoin Volume
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L1 DEX Volume
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L2 Total Volume
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L2 ETH Transfer
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L2 Stablecoin Volume
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L2 DEX Volume
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Bridge Total Volume
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Bridge ETH Volume
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Ratings & Discussion
TVL Multiple
TVL × Multiple ÷ Supply
Values ETH based on total assets locked in DeFi protocols. The 7x multiple is derived from historical MC/TVL ratios during balanced market conditions (2020-2023 average). Higher TVL indicates greater network utility, adoption, and trust in Ethereum's smart contract ecosystem. This model assumes DeFi activity is a primary value driver for ETH.
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Staking Scarcity
Price × √(Supply ÷ (Supply - Staked))
Applies a scarcity premium when circulating supply decreases due to staking. As more ETH is locked in validators (currently ~28%), liquid supply shrinks, theoretically increasing price pressure. The square root function dampens extreme valuations while still capturing the scarcity effect. This model gained relevance post-Merge with ETH's transition to Proof-of-Stake.
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Metcalfe's Law
Coef × TVL^Exp ÷ Supply
Network value grows proportionally to the square of active users/nodes. Originally developed for telecommunications, this model has been empirically validated for Bitcoin and Ethereum by academic researchers (Alabi 2017, Peterson 2018). Uses TVL as a proxy for network activity. The 1.5 exponent (between linear and quadratic) accounts for real-world network friction.
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Staking DCF
Price × (1 + APR) ÷ (Discount - Growth)
Traditional Discounted Cash Flow analysis treating staking rewards as perpetual cash flows. Uses live staking APR from Lido API as the cash flow rate, 9% discount rate (4.5% risk-free rate + 4.5% crypto equity risk premium), and 3% perpetual growth rate. The higher risk premium reflects full ETH price exposure including volatility, regulatory, and smart contract risks.
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L2 Ecosystem
(TVL + L2×Weight) × Multiple ÷ Supply
Captures value from Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling ecosystem (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync, etc.). L2 TVL is weighted 2x because L2 activity settles on Ethereum mainnet, consuming blockspace and burning ETH via EIP-1559. This model recognizes that Ethereum's value extends beyond L1 to its entire rollup-centric roadmap and modular blockchain thesis.
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P/S Ratio (25x)
(L1Fees + BlobFees) × 365 × PSRatio ÷ Supply
Price-to-Sales ratio comparing market cap to annual transaction fee revenue. Unlike traditional companies, L1 protocols like Ethereum have no "net income" at the protocol level — all fees flow to validators. Therefore, P/S (not P/E) is the industry standard, as used by Token Terminal. The 25x multiple reflects growth tech stock valuations.
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Fee Yield
(L1Fees + BlobFees) × 365 ÷ APR ÷ Supply
Reverse-engineers fair value from live staking APR, treating ETH like a yield-bearing bond. If Ethereum generates X in annual fees and the current staking yield is Y%, the implied market cap is X ÷ Y%. Uses real-time Lido stETH APR instead of a fixed target yield. This approach is favored by TradFi analysts evaluating crypto as an alternative asset class.
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Liquidity Premium
Price × √(Supply ÷ Liquid Float)
Based on Amihud's liquidity premium theory: as tradeable ETH decreases, reduced market liquidity creates upward price pressure. Liquid Float = Supply minus all locked ETH (staking, DeFi, L2 bridges, lost/dormant wallets). More comprehensive than Staking Scarcity as it includes all illiquid supply. Current Liquid Float: --%
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App Capital
AppCapital ÷ Supply
App Capital represents total on-chain assets: stablecoins, ERC-20 tokens, NFTs, RWAs, and bridged assets. Since direct App Capital data is unavailable, we estimate it using the 28% stablecoin ratio (Stablecoins/AppCapital) which has been stable since 2021. App Capital serves as a floor for market cap—network security (MC) must back the value of all settled assets. Unlike TVL (DeFi only), App Capital captures Ethereum's full settlement layer role.
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Validator Economics
Price × (Target ÷ APR)
Calculates fair value based on the ratio of target staking yield to current APR. Target yield (6%) = US 10Y Treasury (~4.5%) + Staking risk premium (~1.5%). The lower premium (vs. 4.5% in DCF) reflects staking's reduced risk profile: predictable validator rewards, no impermanent loss, and protocol-level security. If current APR is below target, ETH is undervalued.
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ETH Monetary (MV=PQ)
(L1 ETH Vol + L2 ETH Vol) × 365 ÷ ETH Velocity ÷ Supply
Measures ETH as money using the Equation of Exchange (MV=PQ). Only counts native ETH transfers on L1 and L2 — excludes stablecoins, DeFi tokens, and other assets. This isolates ETH's direct monetary function from Ethereum's broader settlement activity. Velocity = 6 reflects ETH's store-of-value characteristics: 28% locked in staking, institutional accumulation post-ETF, and long-term holder behavior. This is empirically aligned with USD M1 velocity (~5.5x) and academic research showing crypto velocities of 4-6x annually. Lower velocity implies higher fair value.
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Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ)
(L1 Total Vol + L2 Total Vol) × 365 ÷ Ecosystem Velocity ÷ Supply
Measures Ethereum as settlement infrastructure using MV=PQ. Counts ALL token activity across the ecosystem: stablecoins, DeFi tokens, NFTs — not just native ETH. This captures Ethereum's total economic throughput as a global settlement layer. Velocity = 150 is derived from stablecoin turnover (~80x/year per McKinsey), adjusted upward for high-frequency DeFi swaps and downward for bot/MEV removal (70-93% per Visa research). Higher velocity than ETH Monetary reflects faster-moving token economy.
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Appendix: Valuation Framework Categories
ETHval employs 12 valuation models organized into four methodological categories. Each category represents a distinct theoretical approach to estimating Ethereum's intrinsic value, ranging from traditional finance frameworks to crypto-native metrics.
1. Traditional Finance (TradFi)
Traditional finance methodologies adapted for crypto. These models treat ETH as a yield-generating asset comparable to bonds or dividend stocks, applying established frameworks like DCF, P/S ratios, and required return analysis. Best suited for institutional investors seeking familiar valuation anchors.
Staking DCF
Forward-looking: Discounts future staking rewards to present value. Uses 9% discount rate and 3% perpetual growth.
P/S Ratio
Revenue multiple: Applies 25x multiplier to annual fee revenue. Comparable to SaaS valuations (10-40x).
Fee Yield
Backward-looking: Reverse-engineers market cap from current staking APR. Treats ETH as a yield-bearing bond.
Validator Economics
Required return: Compares current APR vs. 6% target yield. Focus on validator profitability threshold.
2. On-chain Asset Value
Values ETH based on assets locked, settled, or secured on the network. These models treat Ethereum as a settlement layer that must provide economic security proportional to the capital it backs. Premise: Network security (market cap) should scale with on-chain asset value.
TVL Multiple
DeFi-focused: Values ETH based on DeFi deposits only. Uses 7x multiple from historical MC/TVL ratios.
App Capital
Broadest scope: All on-chain assets (stablecoins, ERC-20s, NFTs, RWAs). Uses 28% stablecoin ratio as proxy.
3. Network Effects
Models that capture value from user adoption, transaction activity, and ecosystem growth. Based on network economics theory that value grows non-linearly with adoption. Particularly relevant for Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap where L2 activity accrues value to L1.
Metcalfe's Law
User-driven: Network value ∝ n^1.5. Uses TVL as proxy. Academically validated for BTC/ETH.
ETH Monetary (MV=PQ)
ETH as money: Applies MV=PQ to ETH transfers only. Velocity 6 reflects SoV characteristics.
Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ)
Infrastructure value: Applies MV=PQ to all token transfers. Velocity 150 based on stablecoin turnover.
L2 Ecosystem
Rollup-inclusive: Weights L2 TVL at 2x because L2 settles on L1, burning ETH via EIP-1559.
4. Supply Scarcity
Supply-side models that price ETH based on reduced effective circulating supply. These models recognize that significant portions of ETH are structurally locked (staking, DeFi, lost coins), creating scarcity dynamics similar to stock buybacks or float reduction.
Staking Scarcity
Simple ratio: Values ETH based on non-staked supply only. Higher staking % = higher fair value.
Liquidity Premium
Amihud liquidity theory: Reduced tradeable float from staking, DeFi, L2, and lost ETH creates price premium via lower market liquidity.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: These valuation models are for reference only. Each model has its own assumptions and limitations.
Investment decisions should consider multiple factors comprehensively.