ETHval

Dashboard › Valuation models

Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ) ETH fair value model

Fair value$16,383
ETH close$2,498
Gap to price+555.9%

Last complete day 2026-10-13 (UTC) · Built 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC from the stored daily data. Values are for 2026-10-13; the live value is on the dashboard.

Open the live chart →

Formula

(L1 Total Vol + L2 Total Vol) × 365 ÷ Ecosystem Velocity ÷ Supply

How it works

Applies MV=PQ to Ethereum entire ecosystem (all tokens, not just ETH). Key difference from ETH Monetary: ETH Monetary measures only native ETH transfers (V=6, ETH as money), while this model captures ALL token activity including stablecoins, DeFi tokens, NFTs (V=150, Ethereum as settlement infrastructure). Velocity = 150 derivation: (1) Stablecoin benchmark: USDC/USDT on-chain turnover ~80x/year (McKinsey); (2) DeFi multiplier: 2x for higher-frequency swaps = ~160; (3) BlockSci validation: raw velocity 785 ÷ 4x self-churn (Pernice et al. 2020) = 196; (4) Bot adjustment: 70-93% bot/MEV volume (Visa), organic range 55-236. Selected 150 as conservative mid-range.

Limits: Velocity (150): stablecoin turnover (~80/year) × 2x DeFi multiplier, validated by BlockSci 4x self-churn adjustment

Constants

ConstantValueMeaning
ECOSYSTEM_VELOCITY150All-token turnover per year

One-year history

$1,565$9,101$52,9152025-10-142026-10-13

Daily fair value (purple) vs ETH close (grey), 2025-10-14 – 2026-10-13.

References

Other models