ETHval

Dashboard › Valuation models

Validator Economics ETH fair value model

Fair value$6,782
ETH close$2,498
Gap to price+171.5%

Last complete day 2026-10-13 (UTC) · Built 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC from the stored daily data. Values are for 2026-10-13; the live value is on the dashboard.

Open the live chart →

Formula

Price × (Target ÷ APR)

How it works

Calculates fair value based on the ratio of target staking yield to current APR. Target yield (6%) = US 10Y Treasury (~4.5%) + Staking risk premium (~1.5%). The lower premium (vs. 4.5% in DCF) reflects staking's reduced risk profile: predictable validator rewards, no impermanent loss, and protocol-level security. If current APR is below target, ETH is undervalued.

Limits: Target 6% required yield is subjective; varies significantly by investor risk appetite

Constants

ConstantValueMeaning
RISK_FREE_RATE4.5Risk-free rate (%)
RISK_PREMIUM1.5Risk premium on top (%)

One-year history

$1,565$3,402$7,3922025-10-142026-10-13

Daily fair value (purple) vs ETH close (grey), 2025-10-14 – 2026-10-13.

References

Other models