ETHval

Dashboard › Valuation models

Staking Scarcity ETH fair value model

Fair value$2,952
ETH close$2,498
Gap to price+18.2%

Last complete day 2026-10-13 (UTC) · Built 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC from the stored daily data. Values are for 2026-10-13; the live value is on the dashboard.

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Formula

Price × √(Supply ÷ (Supply - Staked))

How it works

Applies a scarcity premium when circulating supply decreases due to staking. As more ETH is locked in validators (currently ~28%), liquid supply shrinks, theoretically increasing price pressure. The square root function dampens extreme valuations while still capturing the scarcity effect. This model gained relevance post-Merge with ETH's transition to Proof-of-Stake.

Limits: Proprietary model developed for this dashboard. Lacks peer review or academic validation

Constants

ConstantValueMeaning
Fixed in formula0.5value: price * Math.pow(scarcityFactor, 0.5)

One-year history

$1,565$2,745$4,8122025-10-142026-10-13

Daily fair value (purple) vs ETH close (grey), 2025-10-14 – 2026-10-13.

References

Other models