Staking DCF ETH fair value model

Fair value$7,494

ETH close$2,498

Gap to price+200.0%

Last complete day 2026-10-13 (UTC) · Built 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC from the stored daily data. Values are for 2026-10-13; the live value is on the dashboard.

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Formula

Price × (1 + APR) ÷ (Discount - Growth)

How it works

Traditional Discounted Cash Flow analysis treating staking rewards as perpetual cash flows. Uses live staking APR from Lido API as the cash flow rate, 9% discount rate (4.5% risk-free rate + 4.5% crypto equity risk premium), and 3% perpetual growth rate. The higher risk premium reflects full ETH price exposure including volatility, regulatory, and smart contract risks.

Limits: Highly sensitive to discount rate and growth rate assumptions

Constants

Constant	Value	Meaning
`DISCOUNT_RATE`	0.09	Discount rate
`GROWTH_RATE`	0.03	Perpetual growth rate
Fixed in formula	3	`dcfValue = Math.min(price * yieldMultiplier / (C.DISCOUNT_RATE - C.GROWTH_RATE), price * 3)`

One-year history

$1,565$4,422$12,4902025-10-142026-10-13

Daily fair value (purple) vs ETH close (grey), 2025-10-14 – 2026-10-13.

Staking DCF ETH fair value model

Formula

How it works

Constants

One-year history

References

Other models