ETHval

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Metcalfe's Law ETH fair value model

Fair value$5,840
ETH close$2,498
Gap to price+133.8%

Last complete day 2026-10-13 (UTC) · Built 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC from the stored daily data. Values are for 2026-10-13; the live value is on the dashboard.

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Formula

Coef × TVL^Exp ÷ Supply

How it works

Network value grows proportionally to the square of active users/nodes. Originally developed for telecommunications, this model has been empirically validated for Bitcoin and Ethereum by academic researchers (Alabi 2017, Peterson 2018). Uses TVL as a proxy for network activity. The 1.5 exponent (between linear and quadratic) accounts for real-world network friction.

Limits: DAU-to-value coefficient varies significantly; 1.5 exponent may not fit all conditions

Constants

ConstantValueMeaning
METCALFE_COEF2Metcalfe coefficient
METCALFE_EXP1.5Metcalfe exponent

One-year history

$1,565$4,667$13,9142025-10-142026-10-13

Daily fair value (purple) vs ETH close (grey), 2025-10-14 – 2026-10-13.

References

Other models