ETH valuation report — July 2026

Full month, 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 (UTC)

Composite fair value$3,040

ETH close$1,861

Price vs fair value−38.8%

Band zone−50% ~ −25%

Change over the month

vs 2026-06-30 (previous month end)

Item	Start2026-06-30	End2026-07-31	Change
Composite fair value	$2,913	$3,040	+4.4%
ETH close	$1,568	$1,861	+18.6%
Price vs fair value	−46.1%	−38.8%	+7.4 pp

What moved the fair value

Each model's change over the month and its share of the composite change (model change ÷ 12, because the composite is a simple average of 12 models).

Model	Start	End	Change	Effect on composite
Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ)	$8,842	$7,219	−18.3%	−$135
Staking DCF	$4,705	$5,583	+18.6%	+$73.11
Metcalfe's Law	$3,737	$4,408	+18.0%	+$55.91
Validator Economics	$2,961	$3,610	+21.9%	+$54.05
Liquidity Premium	$2,268	$2,674	+17.9%	+$33.84
Staking Scarcity	$1,833	$2,185	+19.2%	+$29.39
L2 Ecosystem	$2,388	$2,663	+11.5%	+$22.89
TVL Multiple	$2,140	$2,389	+11.6%	+$20.76
App Capital	$4,480	$4,270	−4.7%	−$17.52
ETH Monetary (MV=PQ)	$1,583	$1,453	−8.2%	−$10.80
Fee Yield	$8.13	$13.19	+62.3%	+$0.42
P/S Ratio (25x)	$6.46	$10.20	+58.0%	+$0.31

Largest effects: Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ) −$135, Staking DCF +$73.11, Metcalfe's Law +$55.91.

Band position

Days the ETH close spent in each fair value band this month (close vs that day's composite).

above +100%0 d
+50% ~ +100%0 d
+25% ~ +50%0 d
0% ~ +25%0 d
−25% ~ 0%0 d
−50% ~ −25%26 d
below −50%5 d

Ended in the −50% ~ −25% band. Gap range in the month: −56.5% to −33.0%.

Daily composite fair value vs ETH close

$1,568$2,578$4,2372026-06-302026-07-31

Composite fair value (purple) and ETH close (grey), 2026-06-30 – 2026-07-31.

How this page is made

Composite = simple average of the models that have a stored value that day (12 models; the same rule as the 01.3 fair value band chart). Band edges = composite × 0.5 / 0.75 / 1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5 / 2.0. Past values are recomputed from the stored daily data with the current model formulas and constants, so they can differ from what the live page showed on that day. Days without data are left out, never filled. Built 2026-10-14 23:19 UTC.

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