ETH valuation report — January 2026

Full month, 2026-01-01 – 2026-01-31 (UTC)

Composite fair value$4,780

ETH close$2,447

Price vs fair value−48.8%

Band zone−50% ~ −25%

Change over the month

vs 2025-12-31 (previous month end)

Item	Start2025-12-31	End2026-01-31	Change
Composite fair value	$5,049	$4,780	−5.3%
ETH close	$2,969	$2,447	−17.6%
Price vs fair value	−41.2%	−48.8%	−7.6 pp

What moved the fair value

Each model's change over the month and its share of the composite change (model change ÷ 12, because the composite is a simple average of 12 models).

Model	Start	End	Change	Effect on composite
Staking DCF	$8,907	$7,340	−17.6%	−$131
ETH Monetary (MV=PQ)	$2,991	$3,733	+24.8%	+$61.79
Validator Economics	$5,406	$4,779	−11.6%	−$52.26
Staking Scarcity	$3,447	$2,877	−16.5%	−$47.47
Liquidity Premium	$4,184	$3,667	−12.4%	−$43.14
Metcalfe's Law	$9,083	$8,806	−3.1%	−$23.10
App Capital	$4,794	$4,639	−3.2%	−$12.95
Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ)	$13,665	$13,533	−1.0%	−$10.98
L2 Ecosystem	$4,116	$4,034	−2.0%	−$6.81
TVL Multiple	$3,869	$3,790	−2.0%	−$6.59
Fee Yield	$69.66	$89.05	+27.8%	+$1.62
P/S Ratio (25x)	$57.38	$68.38	+19.2%	+$0.92

Largest effects: Staking DCF −$131, ETH Monetary (MV=PQ) +$61.79, Validator Economics −$52.26.

Band position

Days the ETH close spent in each fair value band this month (close vs that day's composite).

above +100%0 d
+50% ~ +100%0 d
+25% ~ +50%0 d
0% ~ +25%0 d
−25% ~ 0%0 d
−50% ~ −25%31 d
below −50%0 d

Ended in the −50% ~ −25% band. Gap range in the month: −49.4% to −38.1%.

Daily composite fair value vs ETH close

$2,447$3,821$5,9672025-12-312026-01-31

Composite fair value (purple) and ETH close (grey), 2025-12-31 – 2026-01-31.

How this page is made

Composite = simple average of the models that have a stored value that day (12 models; the same rule as the 01.3 fair value band chart). Band edges = composite × 0.5 / 0.75 / 1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5 / 2.0. Past values are recomputed from the stored daily data with the current model formulas and constants, so they can differ from what the live page showed on that day. Days without data are left out, never filled. Built 2026-10-14 23:19 UTC.

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